Good Game, I Go Home Now

This is how Republican Congressman Mark Foley did it.

1. Win election into the House of Representatives
2. Get re-elected 5 more times
3. Get appointed as Chairman of the House Caucus of Missing and Exploited Children
4. Send email to a Congressional page (high school interns of the House of Representatives) asking him what gift he wants for his birthday and requesting a picture of the page
5. Have IM conversations with other pages. Ask them "Do I make your horny?" and say "Cute butt bouncing in the air"
6. Get reported by ABC News
7. Resign

On the poker front, SNGs have been incredibly frustrating in the past few days. I've bubbled on about 35% of my SNGs. So sick. Anyway, busting out on the money bubble is one of the most annoying things about playing poker. There's a disconnect between your brain and your feelings. Almost all players would feel great anguish when they lose after getting their money in as a 3 to 1 favorite while they would feel ok/slightly disappointed when they play badly, get their money in as a big underdog and predictably lose. Yet, we know that we should feel good about making the right decisions...

I was clearing out my email Inbox when I found this link to a blog that I read quite a while ago. http://dyingis.blogspot.com/. It's a terminally ill lady who blogged about the last few days of her life.

I haven't played much poker over the past 5 days or so. Played exactly 2 MTTs on PokerStars and didn't cash in both. The first one, I was actually the first player out of 906 entrants to bust when my flopped set ran up against a flopped flush. For some reason, I do really badly on PokerStars. I only really play the MTTs on Stars and I think I must have dropped somewhere around 3K on that site so far since I opened an account about 4 months ago. I've never even cashed in the 22-180 SNGs even though I've played around 30 of them by now. PokerStars is a disease. I'll stick to PartyPoker SNGs till my PokerStars doom switch is switched off or I get a tin foil hat.

Anyway, it's not as if I've been slacking in the past few days. Instead of playing poker, I've managed to hang out with my friends, fly across the Pacific and most of America to come back for school, find a place to stay for this academic quarter and sort out other annoying little matters. Now I just need to sort out the classes that I'm taking and finish unpacking and I'll be all set for school and poker.

Ok, here's one random thought that popped up in my mind while I was taking a piss at the LA airport.I realized that it would really suck if I had to sneeze while pissing. It would be tough trying to control a stream of urine while sneezing and there exists a significant possibility that I might direct the stream away from the urinal. Now, if this happened in my own home, it's just a minor inconvenience for me to clean up. But if someone was using the urinal next to mine in a public bathroom, he might be a victim of my sneeze-induced misdirected piss. What would he do then? Would he just glare at me and say wtf? Or would he take revenge and return fire? And how do I react? Surely I'll apologize but do I apologize while shaking my willy dry, zipping up and wiping my nose dry? Or do I delay my apology for a few awkward seconds whilst I finish up my stuff? I guess I'll have to hope that this never happens to me. If it does, I'll report how it turns out.

Ok, before I leave, here's one hand from the $22-180 SNG on Stars. Villain had lost some chips a few hands before when he raised preflop and had to fold on the flop was his c-bet was checkraised all-in. Ok so my preflop limp with ATs was weak and part of me hates this line. On the flop, I'm kinda uncertain about how I played it. The hands that I beat are basically any Ax where x is not 4 or 8. I could very easily be up against 44, 88, AJ+ or A4 or A8. Villain's raise was so small that it could either be a sucker bet or he's weak. I figured that I should call and then re-evaluate on the turn. So 9 came on the turn and I checked to Villain, planning to fold to any serious bet. He now shoves all-in. A lot of good players do this with strong hands, hoping to get a call from a weak Ace but at this point, I didn't know enough about this player to give him credit for making this move. So I narrowed his range to a weak Ace. My only concern now would be if he had AJ but I figured since I had already doubled up earlier, I could easily take this gamble and still have a healthy stack if I lose. True enough, my hand was good, but I was surprised to see that he only had a pair of 8s. Honestly, if he had raised more on the flop, I would probably have folded, knowing that his big raise commits the rest of his stack.

Any thoughts?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30

Hero: t3270
UTG+1: t1350
MP1: t1367
MP2: t1365
MP3: t3040
CO: t1055
Button: t1525
SB: t2018
BB: t4070

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with :Ad :Td
Hero calls t30 (pot was t45), 2 folds, MP2 calls t30 (pot was t75), MP3 folds, CO calls t30 (pot was t105), Button folds, SB calls t15 (pot was t135), BB checks.

Flop: :4d :8c :Ah (t150, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t100, MP2 raises to t240, 3 folds, Hero calls t140 (pot was t490).

Turn: :9s (t630, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 is all-in t1095, Hero calls t1095 (pot was t1725).

River: :4c (t2820, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: t2820)

Results:
Final pot: t2820
MP2 showed 8s Js
Hero showed Ad Td

A few days ago, my brother asked me what's the best way to raise $50K for a charitable project that he's involved in. For a split second, I was going to tell him that he should first deposit some money in an online casino and then bonus whore their blackjack games. And get his colleagues to do it as well and once they get $25K, they should bet it all on Red at roulette and that's $50K for them. I decided to spare him the details of bonus whoring and simply told him to bet $25K on red.

For sportsbetting junkies amongst us, this weekend should be a really exciting one. Loads and loads of action.

1. Man U v Arsenal
2. Liverpool v Chelsea
3. Yankees v Red Sox doubleheader
4. Michigan v Notre Dame
5. LSU v Auburn
6. AL Central/AL Wild card race...every game is crucial from now on.

Sick thing is that I'm going to be missing out on all the action. I haven't had the time read up on all the matchups and do my homework.

And poker has been really frustrating in the past few days. Completed another 120+ SNGs and overall, I dropped about 12 buy-ins. I think I played ok though and made theoretical profit...too bad I can't see the theoretical money in my PP account.

Also, I've been thinking of switching to Speed SNGs. I've only played about 3-5 of the Speed SNGs so I'll probably need to put in about 50-60 Speed SNGs in to have any reasonable estimate of my edge in them. While I understand that the variance in the Speed SNGs is going to be higher than in the regular ones, if my ROI is the same, then switching to Speed SNGs is a no brainer since my hourly rate will then be higher. Perhaps I'll drop down to the $22 Speed SNGs for the next couple of days and see how I fare.

For some reason, for the past few days, I've had this itch to play Triple Draw. The last time I played it was in the 20/40 mixed games in Vegas over a month ago and I don't really enjoy the game that much. Maybe I'm just sick of NLHE.

Playing SNGs in the past few days, I've been encountering more and more of the gaybet. For those who are familiar with the donkbet, the gaybet is simply the minimum bet version of the donkbet. It just comes out of no where and has zero fold equity. Here's an example from a SNG I played. 100/200 level. Donk (2.5K) limps and with KK, I raise to 700 behind him and he calls. Flop is all rags and he gaybets 200 into a pot of 1700, I raise to 600 and he folds. Now this gaybet serves no purpose. By betting 200 into a pot of 1700, he's offering me almost 10-1 odds on my call and justifying me calling with overcards, flush draw, OESD, ISD, bottom pair, etc. He's just spewing chips with that bet because he would need me to fold about 11% of the time and I don't think any who raises 3.5X preflop in a SNG is going to fold any more than 5% of the time. So all the gaybettor does is spew chips.

When I first encountered the gaybet, I used to suspect a monster and simply flat called behind with hands like AK that missed or JJ/TT/QQ with overcard(s) on the flop and allowed them to hit their draw or weird 2 pair. Now, I think most of the time, the gaybet signifies a draw of some sort. So a lot of the time, a healthy raise should take down the pot.

I played in a couple of MTTs on Bodog today. First time I've played MTTs in about 2-3 weeks now. Made deep runs but didn't cash in any.

Bodog 12K (450+ players)

I think Bodog MTTs are good because of there's always a significant overlay, but their software and late tournament blind structure sucks big time. Anyway, I slowly chipped up without any major confrontations till the first break. Had a huge double up at the 150/300 level. AJs in the BB with 3.5K behind. Folded to Villain on the button who raises to 900 on a steal. SB folds and I shove. Villain thinks for a while and then calls with Q9s. I make 2 pair and double up.

Soon, we're down to 48 players and 45 spots pay. 400/800 and I have A3o in the BB with 9K behind. Folds around to Villain (12K) on the button and he raises to 3000. I don't have any read on the Villain since I just got moved to the table but it smells suspiciously like a steal. So I shove and he thinks for a long time before calling with A8 and I don't suck out. GG. I suck.

Bodog 4K (450+ players)

Got a couple of big hands early on, AA and KK and more than doubled up on those hands. Then this hand comes up at the 200/400 level. I had KJ in the BB with 6.5K behind and 3 players limp in, SB completes and I check my option. Flop comes A-J-8 and it's checked all around. Turn is a King, giving me 2 pair. I bet 1200 into the 2000 pot and Villain (18K) flat calls. River is a T making a board of A-J-8-K-T and I check. Villain bets 1500 into a 4200 pot and I call, getting almost 4-1 odds. Of course, Villain shows the Q-T for the turned straight. Was my call correct? When I made that call, I figured that a lot of the time, Villain will show Ace-rag and my middle two pair would be good and with 4-1 odds, the call was made easier. But in retrospect, there are not too many hands that I can beat because AJ, A8, AT, 88 and Qx are easily hands that Villain might have and so, 4-1 odds may not be good enough. Any thoughts?

My demise came a few hands after that. Still at 200/400. I have 99 in MP3 with 4.2K behind. 2 limpers and I jam. Everyone folds and donkey limper (7K) uses up his entire time bank and calls with KJs. Jack on the flop. Bye bye! IGHN.

Didn't play any SNGs today. Was too tired after watching the Man U Celtic game. Sweet. 3-2. Man U is going to dominate all this season.

While playing online poker today, someone in the chat called the American national anthem "Jose Can You See". Lame as it sounds, I actually find it quite funny.

Speaking of the "Jose Can You See", I would actually hazard a guess that say 30-40% of Americans are unable to sing the national anthem. This is based on my experiences at sporting events where only a small minority of the spectators actually sing the anthem before the game starts.

I'd be willing to make a small bet that I'm correct. Any takers?

I've been a Man U fan for the past 14 years and tonight they are playing Celtic in the Champions League. I've looked at the odds offered by several online sportsbooks, my local sportsbook and TradeSports. Basically, all of them rate Man U as the hot favorite to win and the difference in the odds for a Man U win is not significant to the layman (but hugely significant to a serious sports bettor)*.

However, if you decide to bet on Celtic to win, the TradeSports market rates Celtic as only having a 6.8% chance of winning while the other sportsbooks on average rate Celtic as having a 12-14% chance of winning. This translates to a huge huge difference in payout odds of 14-1 on TradeSports vs 8.3-1 on the sportsbooks. So if you want to bet on Celtic, TradeSports it is.

I won't be betting on this game however since a) Man U is playing and betting on teams that I love simply clouds my judgements b) I am realistic that at best, my edge in soccer betting is only slightly positive, most probably zero.

* In a paper studying the NFL gambling market, UChicago economist Steven Levitt states that "Thus the posted spread on Tuesday is within one point of the posted spread at kickoff on Sunday in 90 percent of all games". To the layman, this seems like a tiny shift, ie what difference does it make if the Patriots were 3 point favorites or 4 point favorites over the Bears? But to a serious sports bettor, this is a huge difference. If you can't see why this is a huge difference, don't bet on sports. Play the lottery instead.

Here's another QQ preflop hand that is similar to the one I posted yesterday. This time however, I decided to make the call since the shortie's pushing range is rather large and consequently, MP3's isolation reraise range is wider than that in yesterday's hand.

Blinds: t20/t40

UTG: t200
UTG+1: t1980
MP1: t1860
MP2: t4100
MP3: t2080
CO: t1850
Button: t1990
Hero: t1960
BB: t3980

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with :qh :qd
UTG raises all-in t200, 3 folds, MP3 raises to t510, 2 folds, Hero raises all-in t1940, BB folds, MP3 calls t1450 (pot was t2690).
Flop: :8d :5c :7d (t4000, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t640, Sidepot 1: t3360)
Turn: :3c (t4000, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t640, Sidepot 1: t3360)
River: :td (t4000, 1 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: t640, Sidepot 1: t3360)
Results:
Final pot: t4000
MP3 shows Kh Ad
Hero shows Qh Qd
UTG shows 8s 7s

I think MP3 played his AK poorly. Raising was the correct play to isolate the shortie, however, he was not deep enough to be able to fold his hand to an all-in reraise behind him. Hence, he should have reraised all-in to isolate. With an all-in isolation raise, only KK and AA would be confident enough to make the call whilst putting a lot of pressure on JJ, QQ, AQ and AK. I think I still would have made the call if he had moved in instead of iso-raising but it'll be a much tougher call to make.

On a side note, I hate CRT monitors. I hooked up my laptop to my old 17inch CRT and it's hurting my eyes. I miss you LCD.

I just completed 24 SNGs and I just about broke even. Got a few sick beats on the bubble where I was a 3-1 favorite when the chips went in preflop, but it's no biggie. Anyway, here's a hand that I think I played ok.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t30/t60

UTG: t2030
UTG+1: t2660
UTG+2: t1580
MP1: t2215
MP2: t1740
MP3: t2195
CO: t1860
Button: t1465
Hero: t1850
BB: t2405

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is SB with Q♥ Q♦
UTG raises to t225, 6 folds, Button raises to t615, Hero folds, 2 folds.
Uncalled bets: t390 returned to Button.

Results:
Final pot: t540
Final pot: t540

This hand is entirely about the range of hands that I assign to the UTG raiser and button reraiser. The loosest ranges that I can assign are UTG -> {88+,AQs+,AQo+} and button -> {TT+,AKs,AKo}. With this range I only have an equity of 38.1% against both of them, just 5 points better than average. Since the equity edge that I am pushing is just 5% and we're only in the 2nd level of the SNG, I think it is correct for me to fold this hand and find a better spot later on. I would need to loosen the range to UTG -> {66+,AQs+,AQo+} and button -> {TT+,AQs+,AQo+} before my equity edge becomes sufficient enough for me to push.

I guess my decision worked out perfectly as I went on to win the SNG, but then again, we can't be results oriented, can we? :)

Here's my favorite post in the 2+2 forums. It's by Gigabet and he's had a few other posts on the forum that's highly +EV.

"Bad beats are no longer bad beats, they are just the cards coming out randomly, evening themselves out over time. What is really important is learning the thousands of languages that different people speak through their actions at the table. Believe me, it isn't some spiritual science, it is listening and learning without prejudice." - Gigabet

I think this is the most valuable piece of poker advice that I've ever read. At its very core, poker is a game of information. In the long run, the biggest winners in poker are those that not only are able to ignore the noise and collect useful information, but more importantly, correctly use the information to guide their decision making. The poker table is a treasure trove of information. Every time a person bets, every time he hesitates, every time he folds, he is telling us something. The trick then is to not only pay attention, but also try to make sense of what they are "saying" to us. It is undoubtedly a huge burden on our limited cognitive resources to "listen" to the other players and consequently, many poker players fall back on stereotypes. Very often, these stereotypes are sufficient to allow a poker player to be a winning one but to become a better player, one has to abandon these stereotypes and start "listening". It is tough work, but it will pay off.

The weekend after I read Gigabet's post, I went for my usual weekend session at the casino. Previously, I understood the language of detecting weakness in your opponent as "weak means strong and strong means weak". After all, that's what the poker books and pros tell us, so we should do fine by following this stereotype. For that session however, I decided to start from scratch. I observed every single player as they bet, folded, checked and raised. It was a tiring affair having to do this and at the same time, pay attention to how you play your cards.

After a few hours, I was able to verify for myself that most of the time, weak does mean strong and vice-versa. However, I realized that a better way of interpreting other players is to seek out deviations from the norm. After about 3-4 rounds, I was able to learn how players placed their chips when they were strong, weak or drawing. A lot of times, when a person is bluffing, they are not acting strong, but rather, acting in a way that is different from when they are NOT bluffing. To a person who relies on stereotypes, both actions look similarly strong or weak and thus, he does not understand what his opponent is "saying" to him. Once you are able to learn your opponents language, poker is then easy. Since that session, I've been able to learn the languages of many of my opponents and on numerous occasions, the cards that I hold are irrelevant. I'm no longer playing the game per se, but rather, the situation.

Ok, this is my poker blog. I hope that by keeping this blog, I'll be more focused on my poker goals and be clearer about my thought processes.

Please feel free to leave your comments and criticisms. But please, no spam for Viagra, penis enlargement pills or cheaper auto-insurance.