Tuesday, September 12, 2006
Inefficient markets?
I've been a Man U fan for the past 14 years and tonight they are playing Celtic in the Champions League. I've looked at the odds offered by several online sportsbooks, my local sportsbook and TradeSports. Basically, all of them rate Man U as the hot favorite to win and the difference in the odds for a Man U win is not significant to the layman (but hugely significant to a serious sports bettor)*.
However, if you decide to bet on Celtic to win, the TradeSports market rates Celtic as only having a 6.8% chance of winning while the other sportsbooks on average rate Celtic as having a 12-14% chance of winning. This translates to a huge huge difference in payout odds of 14-1 on TradeSports vs 8.3-1 on the sportsbooks. So if you want to bet on Celtic, TradeSports it is.
I won't be betting on this game however since a) Man U is playing and betting on teams that I love simply clouds my judgements b) I am realistic that at best, my edge in soccer betting is only slightly positive, most probably zero.
* In a paper studying the NFL gambling market, UChicago economist Steven Levitt states that "Thus the posted spread on Tuesday is within one point of the posted spread at kickoff on Sunday in 90 percent of all games". To the layman, this seems like a tiny shift, ie what difference does it make if the Patriots were 3 point favorites or 4 point favorites over the Bears? But to a serious sports bettor, this is a huge difference. If you can't see why this is a huge difference, don't bet on sports. Play the lottery instead.
However, if you decide to bet on Celtic to win, the TradeSports market rates Celtic as only having a 6.8% chance of winning while the other sportsbooks on average rate Celtic as having a 12-14% chance of winning. This translates to a huge huge difference in payout odds of 14-1 on TradeSports vs 8.3-1 on the sportsbooks. So if you want to bet on Celtic, TradeSports it is.
I won't be betting on this game however since a) Man U is playing and betting on teams that I love simply clouds my judgements b) I am realistic that at best, my edge in soccer betting is only slightly positive, most probably zero.
* In a paper studying the NFL gambling market, UChicago economist Steven Levitt states that "Thus the posted spread on Tuesday is within one point of the posted spread at kickoff on Sunday in 90 percent of all games". To the layman, this seems like a tiny shift, ie what difference does it make if the Patriots were 3 point favorites or 4 point favorites over the Bears? But to a serious sports bettor, this is a huge difference. If you can't see why this is a huge difference, don't bet on sports. Play the lottery instead.
# posted by SmuCox @ 7:38 PM 
